ECOWAS Faces Security Challenges Post-Niger, Mali Departures

Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso will no longer be members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) as of Wednesday. This will have a significant impact on the already difficult regional cooperation in the areas of trade and security.

On Sunday, the military regimes of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger collectively declared that they would leave ECOWAS with immediate effect, with three days left until their notice of departure expires. The West African economic group now has 12 members instead of 15 after the withdrawal.

On January 28 of last year, the three nations announced their intention to leave the bloc in favor of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a competing confederation.

By falling under the sway of foreign powers and supposedly compromising its fundamental values, they charged that the Nigerian-led ECOWAS bloc leadership posed a threat to their sovereignty and people.

The entire area is concerned about the possible effects of their leave on the region and on individual countries, especially those that share borders with them, as the letter goes into force today in accordance with regional procedures.

Since Niger has been a major player in regional counterterrorism efforts, especially in the battle against Boko Haram and other extremist groups operating in the Sahel, stakeholders believe that the country's exit could, for example, leave a power vacuum in the region that extremist groups could take advantage of.

It is implied that ECOWAS's capacity to coordinate regional security initiatives will be significantly hampered in the absence of Niger's involvement.

Concerns about hostilities spreading southward to Gulf of Guinea republics like Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Ivory Coast have already increased as a result of the French military's withdrawal from the Sahel.

The pullout will also affect ECOWAS's agenda for a borderless zone.

97 percent of ECOWAS country-to-country travel routes do not require a visa for regional persons, according to the 2023 Africa Visa Openness Report. Unless they are safeguarded by distinct bilateral agreements, citizens of the three Sahelian states are likely to lose their rights as a result of their commerce with West African nations and other countries. The remaining members may also start imposing import taxes or requiring visas from their residents as a result of the trio's departure.

There are further collateral damages from the "divorce." There are at least 132 Niger citizens, according to Linda Akhigbe, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's Senior Special Assistant on Strategic Communications and Communications Advisor to the President on the ECOWAS Commission.who will probably lose their employment.

Likewise, those nations' ECOWAS institutions run the risk of closing. These include the ECOWAS Youth and Sports Development Center, the ECOWAS Center for Water Resources, and the West African Health Organization (WAHO), all located in Burkina Faso. Others include the ECOWAS Regional Food Security Reserve located in Mali and Niger, as well as the ECOWAS Resident Representative in those nations.

Therefore, the regional food security reserves in these three nations would be closed, and their inhabitants' jobs will be terminated as a result of AES's withdrawal from ECOWAS. The situation makes it impossible to maintain them.
Additionally, they will be leaving the Inter-Governmental Action Group Against Money Laundering in West Africa (GIABA), which is crucial for combating financial crimes and other related issues, as you are aware. It remains to be seen, notwithstanding the AES countries' wish to stay in GIABA.

Additionally, there is the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), a financial organization that promotes industrialization, economic expansion, and wealth creation for the benefit of the local populace. EBID's development programs and initiatives in these three nations, including the more than $3 million credit facility given to Mali's main bank, will come to an end," the SSA stated.
Additionally, they will be leaving the Inter-Governmental Action Group Against Money Laundering in West Africa (GIABA), which is crucial for combating financial crimes and other related issues, as you are aware. It remains to be seen, notwithstanding the AES countries' wish to stay in GIABA.

Additionally, there is the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), a financial organization that promotes industrialization, economic expansion, and wealth creation for the benefit of the local populace. EBID's development programs and initiatives in these three nations, including the more than $3 million credit facility given to Mali's main bank, will come to an end," the SSA stated.

ECOWAS's total export value was $131.36 billion. Out of this total, Burkina Faso contributed $4.55 billion, Mali exported $3.91 billion, and $446.14 million came from trade with other countries. Burkina Faso brought in $5.63 billion, Niger $3.79 billion, and Mali $6.45 billion. Withdrawing from ECOWAS might mean that the three nations commit themselves to economic isolation, even though their economies only make up 8% of the region's GDP.

The three nations may also find it challenging to gain access to international organizations like the European Union (EU) or the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), which prefer to work with African regional blocs, if they do not have a regional bloc to present a united front, Ejime continued.

"The idea is that they come under one cover, which is easier, rather than dealing with each of the 15 ECOWAS member states separately. As a result, their departure will lower ECOWAS's anticipated trade and exchanges. Even if their contributions may not be as significant as those of Nigeria, Ejime stated that this will further reduce the region's output, particularly in comparison to the other seven regional blocs on the continent.

The annual payments from Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso—which are determined by the Gross National Income (GNI) of each member state—will be lost at a time when the region was desperately in need of funding to carry out development programs. Despite the nations' meager contribution because of their weak economies, it had an effect on the body.

The successful implementation of the five-year-old African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is also feared to be threatened by a fractured ECOWAS bloc. Real earnings are expected to rise by 7%, or around $450 billion, when the AfCFTA deal is fully implemented.

The three nations' exit might make the agreements' foundations weaker and more complicated because they are obligated by the terms of the continental and regional treaties, including the AfCFTA.

Godwin Oyedokun, a professor of accounting and financial development at Lead City University in Ibadan, voiced concerns that the trio's departure would result in less trade integration.

Godwin Oyedokun, a professor of accounting and financial development at Lead City University in Ibadan, voiced concerns that the trio's departure would result in less trade integration.

Oyedokun continued by saying that the exit of these nations could upset current trade agreements and impede the flow of goods and services, which are vital to the success of the AfCFTA, given that ECOWAS is vital in promoting commerce among its member states.

Such a withdrawal could result in a "fragmentation of markets," which would make it more difficult to impose consistent tariffs and regulations throughout the continent, since the AfCFTA seeks to create a unified continental market for products and services.

Oyedokun went on to say that regional cooperation and stability may also be impacted by the political situations in the three nations.

"The cooperative efforts required for the implementation of the AfCFTA may be hampered if these countries are dealing with internal strife or problems with governance. Economic isolation may also be experienced by the departing nations, which could impede their economic progress and result in less foreign investment. Additionally, this isolation might make it more difficult for them to successfully negotiate trade inside the scope of the AfCFTA.

Some have argued that the three departing nations stand to lose more from their actions than the area as a whole, even though the leave may have a detrimental impact on the bloc's ability to function harmoniously.
Professor Jonathan Aremu, a member of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group's Advisory Council and a former consultant to the ECOWAS Commission, insisted that the three French-speaking nations would suffer more from seceding from the rest of West Africa.

"The implementation of some of the trade agreements within the sub-region, such as trade across borders and other economic relationships, which these countries also signed before these countries pulled out, is the only way ECOWAS member-states may be affected," Aremu stated. However, they will lose in terms of the AfCFTA, he stated.

Furthermore, many supply chains in West Africa have over the years, relied on cooperation among ECOWAS members and disintegration may disrupt the supply chains and consequently, affect production and distribution networks that are crucial for regional and broader continental trade.

In as much as Nigeria repented of its sanctions against Niger and expressed sadness over the three countries’ departure from the bloc which it hosts, and deployed several strategies to appease them to change their mind on the exit plan, a statement from Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had nevertheless, reiterated the country’s stance with ECOWAS in upholding due process and sharing commitment to protect and strengthen the rights and welfare of all citizens of member states.

The statement held that Nigeria had worked in good faith to reach out to all members of the bloc towards resolving their challenges but the actions of the exiting countries buttressed that not all members shared “the same good faith.”

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger were founding members of ECOWAS back in 1975, but the regional group had imposed sanctions on them following military coups that overthrew elected civilian governments.