Can Nigeria Achieve 2.06 mbpd? The Path to Oil Success

For Nigeria to meet its 2025 production goal of 2.06 million barrels of crude oil per day, it will require increased investment, enhanced security, and an appropriate regulatory environment.

This is in line with an analysis in the "2025 Nigerian Budget and Economic Outlook" report published by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) International Limited.

The study concludes that the goal is probably attainable for the following three reasons:

"The results of the fiscal reforms that have been put into place, changes in exchange rates, oil production levels, and the price of oil globally will all influence the FAAC allocation in 2025."

Remember that the 2025 budget and the 2025–2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) were benchmarked by the Federal Government of Nigeria using a $75 per barrel world oil price.
This target is "most likely" attainable, according to PwC's analysis, which also notes that the average worldwide oil price in 2024 was $78.05 per barrel.

Nigeria will gain from changes in geopolitics.

According to the report, among other favorable geopolitical developments, Nigeria will gain from the truce between Israel and Hamas, a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and better ties between the US and China.

According to the statement, these encouraging results would aid Nigeria in lowering inflation and promoting the country's general economic expansion.

"It is anticipated that the truce in the Israel-Hamas conflict and the possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine will promote positive effects on international trade, boosting economic stability and expansion. Furthermore, better US-China ties and a reduction in South China Sea hostilities may fortify global supply systems, lower inflationary pressures, and increase global food security.

"Stable Middle Eastern conditions may guarantee consistent oil supplies, which could maintain stable global oil prices and lessen inflationary pressures." Nigeria stands to gain from these favorable geopolitical events as a globally integrated economy, which may assist control the dangers of imported inflation and promote overall economic growth.

Important things to think about in 2025

The report urged particular focus on the following issues:

Regarding security obstacles, the report stated that "between January 2023 and March 2024, there were 4,520 violent occurrences in Nigeria, including 2,329 attacks on civilians and 532 kidnapping-related deaths. Agriculture and local businesses have been seriously damaged by the 5,356 criminal occurrences and 836 farmer-herder conflicts, especially in rural North-Central and North-West regions.

"These security issues are further impeding economic progress by undermining investor confidence and taking government funds away from important development projects."

Dorotv revealed that crude oil theft is a key problem hampering Nigeria’s oil production targets, incurring Nigeria huge income losses.